AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Trades Lower After Export Sales Report

Corn futures are trading 2 3/4 to 3 3/4 cents lower in the nearby months. Traders over estimated weekly corn export sales, the holiday delayed report from this morning indicated that for the week ending 10/10 corn saw 368,756 MT of export sales. That is up 29.6% compared to last week. Exports are still way behind last year, with the accumulated exports for MY through 10/10 at 2.637 MMT now 63.75% behind last year’s pace. The delayed EIA weekly report showed an uptick in daily ethanol production by another 8,000 barrels per day, with 971,000 bpd produced for week ending 10/11. That implies more corn consumption. Ethanol stocks were also up yesterday, increasing 817,000 barrels to 22.061 million barrels.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.91, down 3 3/4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $4.02 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.09 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $4.15, down 2 3/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Bean Prices Responding to Export Sales Report

Soybeans futures are up 5 3/4 to 6 cents at Friday’s midday. Preliminary open interest rose 14,134 contracts on Thursday, some net new buying. There is follow up today. Soybean meal is up $2.37/ton higher, and soy oil is up 13 points. USDA’s weekly export sales report showed soybean export sales were 13.5% below last week, but were at the top of trade estimates with 1.600 MMT for the week ending 10/10. Soy meal export sales were on the low end of trader expectations with 152,939 MT. Soy oil export sales were reported at 3,952 MT.

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.37 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.51, up 5 3/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.63, up 6 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.70 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal is at $309.50, up $2.70,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil is at $30.52, up $0.13

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Mixed at Middays

Wheat Mixed at Middays

Wheat futures are mixed at Friday’s midday. Winter wheat is up, with Chicago seeing 4 1/2 cent gains and KC noticing a 1/2 cent increase so far. MPLS is down by 6 cents. The day delayed export sales report indicated 395,122 MT of sales for the week ending 10/10; traders anticipated 250,000-500,000 MT. Chicago HRW net sales increased 8.17% over last week, and were 440.32% higher than the same week a year ago. HRW had a 41.6% share of the export sales, while Minneapolis HRS held a 36.9% share. The USDA reported 34,787 MT of SRW net export sales for the week ending 10/10, which was 8.8% of all wheat. All wheat accumulated exports are up to 9.437 MMT for the MY 26.88% ahead of last year’s pace and already 38.95% of the 2018/19 MY total. Due to early spring frosts the Department of Agricultural Estimates adjusted their Argentine production estimate to 20.2 MMT.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.30, up 4 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.31 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.46, down 6 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Futures Lower on Profit Taking

Live cattle futures are lower so far this Friday. Feeder cattle futures are down by $1.25 to $2.00 in the nearby contracts. The CME Feeder Cattle index another 3 cents higher on 10/16 to $145.15. USDA’s weekly export sales report showed a 7.7% decrease in wk/wk exports with 15,124 MT shipped. Net sales are on par, 0.27% lower, than the same week last year at 13,045 sales. Wholesale boxed beef prices narrow the spread to 23.77 at Friday’s midday. Choice boxes are down 23 cents to $217.88, with Select boxes noticing a gain of $1.51 up to $194.11. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter through Thursday at 462,000 head. That is 5,000 head below last week and 9,000 lower from the same week last year. FCE’s trial sale this Friday had 941 head listed for sale, with zero sold. A few $108 cash sales were reported in KS and NE this morning, but volume is still limited.

OCT 19 Cattle are at $110.000, down $2.400,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $113.000, down $1.375,

FEB 20 Cattle are at $118.575, down $0.975,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.950, down $1.250

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.325, down $2.000

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $139.100, down $1.750

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog Futures Lower for Friday’s Midday

Lean Hog futures are lower despite the export sales report, dropping as much as $1.42 in the front months. USDA reported 210,853 MT of pork export sales for the week ending 10/10, just shy of July 31st 2014’s record. Mexico was the biggest purchaser, with a 63% share for 132,888 MT of new sales for the week ending 10/10. The report also indicated that due to the 689% wk/wk increase, our accumulated export sales are already ahead of 2018’s yearly total, with 11 weeks left to add to this record marketing year accumulated total. This report may have also included previously made sales that had not been reported to USDA before this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was at $64.90 on Oct 16. The USDA pork carcass cutout value is seeing gains so far for Friday, up 16 cents to $76.44. The national average base hog value is at 57.05, down by $0.75 at Friday’s midday. USDA estimated WTD hog slaughter at 1.962 million head, up 10,000 head from last week and 66,000 larger than last year.

DEC 19 Hogs are at $66.725, down $1.425,

FEB 19 Hogs are at $76.675, down $0.975

APR 20 Hogs are at $82.700, down $1.100

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Sees Modest Gains so far Friday

Cotton futures are seeing increases so far this Friday. Cotton weekly export sales are up 9.33% compared to last week and are the highest since February, at 206,468 running bales. The cumulative sales for the market year are now at 9.135 million only 0.22% below last year’s pace. The Cotlook A Index bounced up another 100 points on Oct to 75.00 cents/lb. The updated Adjusted World Price of cotton is now 55.26, up 1.36 from last Thursday’s AWP. With a tropical storm, most of the Southeastern US and parts of eastern Texas can expect to receive some moisture. Trade agreements are being discussed in Vietnam this afternoon, Vietnam imports 54% of their approximate 7.3 Million bales from the United States.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 65.11, up 12 points,

MAR 19 Cotton is at 65.79, up 28 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 66.29, up 40 points

JUL 20 Cotton is at 66.69, up 56 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com