Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 4 to 5 cents higher in the front months on Thursday. Help is coming from decent export sales data and spill over from soybean and wheat. The weekly FAS Export Sales report indicated old crop sales on the light side of trade estimates at 338,983 MT, with new crop higher that the range of expectations at 1.045 MMT. Combined sales in the week of 8/9 were 88.48% larger than the same week last year and 14.16% larger than the week prior. China sold 1.53 MMT of corn from state reserves into the domestic market, totaling 38.43% of the amount offered.

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.66 1/2, up 5 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.80 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.92 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents

May 19 Corn is at $3.99 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents

Soybean futures are showing 23 to 25 cent gains in most contracts, after China indicated that it would return to the bargaining table with the US for low level talks. That’s not the same as having a deal, but you can’t get a deal if you aren’t talking! Nearby soy meal is up $5.50/ton, with soy oil 225 points higher. A private export sale of 154,404 MT of 18/19 soybeans was reported to Mexico under the USDA’s daily reporting system. The weekly Export Sales report showed old crop soybean sales on the low end estimates at 133,414 MT. Unknown destinations had a net reduction of 205,500 MT, with most of that being switched. New crop sales were reported at 571,554 MT, up 7.3% from last week. Soy meal export sales were seen at a total of 354,487 MT, as soy oil was just 5,124 MT.

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.82 1/2, up 25 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.94, up 25 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $9.06, up 25 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $9.16 1/4, up 23 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybean Meal is at $335.00, up $5.50

Sep 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.13, up $0.25

Wheat futures are posting 9 to 12 1/2 cent gains at midday, after getting support from positive export sales data this morning. The USDA reported a private export sale of 200,000 MT of HRW wheat to Iraq for 18/19 through their daily reporting system. Export Sales data showed all wheat sales in the week that ended on August 9 at a robust 803,047 MT! That was up 153.3% from last week and a MY high, as it was also 26.8% larger than this same week last year. Mexican importers purchased 247,800 MT of that, with the Philippines buying 177,900 MT.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.42 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.47 3/4, up 12 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.92 3/4, up 9 1/4 cents

Live cattle futures are hovering near UNCH at Thursday’s midday. Feeder cattle futures are 20 to 50 cents higher in the nearby contracts, with back months steady to lower. The CME feeder cattle index was down 30 cents from the previous day at $150.34. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Thursday morning. Choice boxes were down 94 cents at $209.01, while Select boxes were 56 cents higher at $201.17. USDA FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 354,000 head through Wednesday. That is down 3,000 head from the previous week and 7,000 head above the same week in 2017. Bids of $108 were shown out in the country on Wednesday with no takers. Export sales of beef in the week that ended 8/9 hit 21,529 MT, a 47.9% jump from last week.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $108.375, up $0.050,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $108.975, down $0.025,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $112.800, unch,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.525, up $0.475

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.375, up $0.225

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.175, down $0.100

Lean hog futures are posting limit gains in the nearby contracts so far on Thursday, on renewed US/China trade talks scheduled for later this month. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.47 on August 13, to $56.81, as was anticipated by the expired August futures. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 28 cents from the previous day at $68.77 on Thursday morning. The national base hog carcass value was down 43 cents in the Thursday AM report, with the weighted average @ $41.70. USDA estimated weekly hog slaughter at 1.403 million head through Wednesday. That is up 93,000 head from last week, and 57,000 head above the same week last year. Sales of pork export muscle cuts were shown at 26,690 MT during the week of August 9, 7.3% above last week.

Oct 18 Hogs are at $55.475, up $3.000,

Dec 18 Hogs are at $52.450, up $3.000

Feb 19 Hogs are at $59.350, up $3.000

Cotton futures are up 61 to 102 points at midday, on the potential for renewed dialog between the US and China on trade. The USDA Export Sales report showed 77,718 RB in old crop upland sales in the week that ended on August 9. Vietnam purchased 24,600 RB, with Pakistan buying 16,900 RB. New crop saw a net reduction of 11,691 RB for upland, with 2,800 RB of pima types sold. The Cotlook A index was up 15 points from the previous day at 92.90 cents/lb on August 15. The weekly AWP, currently at 79.67 cents/lb, will be updated on later today.

Oct 18 Cotton is at 82.1, up 102 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 81.49, up 75 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 81.65, up 61 points

May 19 Cotton is at 82.050, up 61 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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