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December Lean Hogs is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the October contract. It opened higher, traded to the low at 87.425 and then raced to the high of the day at 89.10. It consolidated near the high and settled at 88.75. The rally took price past resistance at 88.325 after an early test of support at the rising 21-DMA now at 87.50 on the December chart.  The cash markets continue to range at higher levels than last year even as slaughter moves higher than last year as expected. Last week’s slaughter came in at 2,588,000, well above last year’s 2,517,023. This is also an 8-month high as slaughter numbers had been coming in weaker than expected. The Hogs and Pigs report is out on Thursday which will give a good indication on inventories and producers’ expansion plans as they are making good money for this year. The Monday strength in Hogs could also been in part the strength in the cattle markets as the screwworm nears the US. It is now 70 miles away from the states and traders have finally realized the border will likely remain closed for much longer than anticipated. This saw Feeders go limit up in the deferred contracts as the realization is supplies will likely be tight until we can stop the advancement of the screwworm and push it back south. This could keep consumer demand high for pork as beef prices are expected to continue higher going forward. We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a test of resistance at 90.40. Resistance then comes in at 92.375. A failure from 88.325 could see price test support at the rising 21-DMA. Support then comes in at 87.30. Support then comes in at the September 18 low at 86.525. 

The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 112.26 as of 09/19/2025. 

The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 105.34 as of 09/18/2025.

Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 490,000, which is even with last week and above last year’s 481,599.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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