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November Feeder Cattle opened lower then rallied to an early high and then crashed. The market plummeted to the low at 368.60 by mdi-morning and then turned higher. It continued higher and kept on going higher the rest of the session to a new all-time high for the lead contract at 376.75. Settlement was near the high and is also the all-time high settlement at 375.90. The early breakdown looked to be a Friday selloff into the weekend as the market had a strong rally going for it the past5-days. The market made an all-time high the previous day so some profit-taking looked inevitable. The market gathered more steam to the downside as the President announced that China was pushing through some dangerous rhetoric saying they wanted to impose export controls on rare earths and virtually everything else you could think of. He responded with a statement that he would raise tariffs on China and that the meeting with the Chinese President would not happen. Equity markets fell and most markets reacting with a swing lower. The breakdown took price to just below the prior all-time high at 369.375 which provided support for the day. Cattle markets started to recover as positive cutout expectations took over  and despite the crash in futures the cash market was talked higher. The cash talk grew louder and Feeder Index expectations looked strong and they were. We established a new all-time high for the Feeder Index when it was released after the close. See below. The market kept climbing right to the end of the session making the all-time high in the last couple of minutes of the day. It formed an Outside Up candlestick indicating more potential for record prices. We’ll see!... A breakdown from settlement could see price retest support at 369.375. Support then comes in at 365.675. If price continues higher, we go to pivot resistance as there are no prior highs or lows above here. R1 is at 79.375, R2 is at 382.10 and R3 is at 387.50.

The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 367.92 as of 10/09/2025. 

December Live Cattle opened lower and rallied to an early high. It broke down as Feeders were in collapse mode and it traded to the low at 237.275. The breakdown took out the Thursday low and support at 238.125 before finally stopping at the 8-DMA now at 237.325( it was lower at the open). The market turned higher and took off to higher levels the rest of the session to the high which amazingly is a new all-time high for the lead contract at 242.825. The rally also burst through trendline resistance at a triangle formation which can be considered bullish in my opinion. The prior all-time high for the lead contract was 242.075. The breakdown in cattle was all about Friday profit taking in my opinion in front of the weekend. Negative news about China also played a role in the breakdown which was overcome by positive news in the cash markets. The positive price action in cash which saw producers take a stand even as futures crated led to the packer increasing bids because they needed cattle. They didn’t buy much early in the week as futures prices rallied, hoping for the breakdown they got early to buy cattle cheap. They bought some from weaker producers but most were firm in their offer leading to packers increases their purchase price desires. The producer dug in and the packer came back and bought cattle at the producers offer. Once again, the packer waiting to buy cattle on Friday bit them in the …. ! This should get the cash average higher for this week which is a turnaround from the downtrend we have been in the past few weeks. Producers hope this is the start of a return to record prices in the cash market as futures made new highs. Cutouts were a little higher on Friday as the retail industry has been able to keep a lid on the cutout while the load count has been strong. Cutouts are expected higher as we move towards the holiday buying seasonal so the cash turning higher this early is a good sign for the producer. The load counts should lead to the packer having to slaughter more cattle or pay higher prices if the cattle aren’t there. The producer hopes all  roads lead to higher prices for cash. Break evens are rising and they don’t want to give up the ship. Slaughter was lower than last week as a major shutdown a plant for cooler maintenance so will that lead to an expansion in slaughter once it is back in action. We’ll see!... A failure from settlement could see price test support at 242.075. Support then comes in at the downward sloping trendline 240.675. Support follows at 238.125. If price can hold settlement, pivot resistance is at R1 at 244.525, R2 is at 246.45 and R3 is at 250.075.

Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts increased 0.35 to 365.57 and select increased 2.06 to 346.39. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 19.18 and the load count was 124.

Friday’s estimated slaughter is 91,000, which is even with last week and below last year’s 104,790. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 10,000, which is below last week’s 13,000 and above last year’s 4,740. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 547,000, which is below last week’s 562,000 and last year’s 585,337.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states:  So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt. Compared to last week in Nebraska, live purchases have been 4.00-5.00 higher from 234.00-235.00 and dressed purchases have been 2.00 higher at 362.00. Compared to Thursday in the Western Cornbelt, live purchases have been 1.00-4.00 higher from 232.00-235.00. There have been a few dressed purchases at 362.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established dressed market in the Western Cornbelt was last week at 360.00. Negotiated cash trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in the Southern Plains. The last established market in the Texas Panhandle was last week at 233.00. The last established market in Kansas was last week at 232.00-233.00, mostly 233.00.

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 228.00 – 235.00 and from 358.00 – 368.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

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